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FAST
Fastenal Company
Summary
Earnings Call Analysis
Valuation
Profitability
Financial Health
Positive Strong Return on Equity
Positive Healthy Profit Margins
Positive Strong Liquidity Ratios
Positive Low Debt Levels
Positive 🏒 Strong Customer Base
Positive πŸ“ˆ Effective Business Model
Positive πŸ’° Strong Cash Flow Generation
Positive πŸš€ Growth in E-commerce and Technology
Positive πŸ“Š Positive Market Sentiment
Negative High Price Ratios
Negative High Price-to-Cash-Flow Ratio
Negative Moderate Cash Position
Negative ⚠️ Customer Site Performance
Negative πŸ“‰ Margin Pressure
Negative ⏳ Economic Uncertainty
Negative πŸ”„ Dependency on Key Accounts

Fastenal demonstrates strong business quality through its effective business model, robust cash flow generation, and a concentrated customer base. However, challenges in lower-tier customer segments and margin pressures could affect growth. On the future prospects front, growth in e-commerce and technology, along with improving market sentiment, present opportunities, though economic uncertainties and dependency on key accounts pose risks.

Analysis Date: January 17, 2025
Last Updated: March 12, 2025

Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) values provide a view of the company's performance over the last year.

Graham Value Metrics

Benjamin Graham's value investing approach focuses on finding stocks with a significant margin of safety between their intrinsic value and market price.

Intrinsic Value

Estimated fair value based on Graham's formula

$47.04

Current Market Price: $74.45

IV/P Ratio: 0.63x (>1.0 indicates undervalued)

Margin of Safety

Gap between intrinsic value and market price

-57.99999999999999%

Graham recommended a minimum of 20-30% margin of safety

Higher values indicate a greater potential discount to fair value

Graham Criteria Checklist

Benjamin Graham's value investing checklist for FAST

Yes Positive earnings (5+ years)
Yes Dividend history (5+ years)
No P/E ratio ≀ 20 (37.67)
No P/B ratio ≀ 1.5 (11.98)
Yes Current ratio β‰₯ 2.0 (4.67x)
Yes Long-term debt < Net current assets (0.12x)
No Margin of safety (-57.99999999999999%)
No FAST does not meet all Graham criteria

ROE: 32.55225094599851

ROA: 5.578969774372073

Gross Profit Margin: 44.006095944871454

Net Profit Margin: 15.247813411078717

Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) values provide a view of the company's performance over the last year.

Healthy Profit Margins

44.01%
Gross Profit Margin
15.25%
Net Profit Margin

The gross profit margin is 44.01%, indicating a strong ability to generate profit from sales. The net profit margin of 15.25% reflects solid profitability after all expenses.

High Price-to-Cash-Flow Ratio

44.86
P/FCF Ratio

The price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) ratio is 44.86, suggesting that the stock might be expensive relative to its cash generation capabilities.

About Profitability Metrics

Profitability metrics measure a company's ability to generate earnings relative to its revenue, operating costs, and other relevant metrics. Higher values generally indicate better performance.

Return on Equity (ROE)

Measures how efficiently a company uses its equity to generate profits

32.55%

10% 15%

Higher values indicate better returns for shareholders

TTM (as of 2025-04-16)

Return on Assets (ROA)

Measures how efficiently a company uses its assets to generate profits

5.58%

3% 7%

Higher values indicate better asset utilization

TTM (as of 2025-04-16)

Gross Profit Margin

Percentage of revenue retained after accounting for cost of goods sold

44.01%

20% 40%

Higher values indicate better efficiency in production

TTM (as of 2025-04-16)

Net Profit Margin

Percentage of revenue retained after accounting for all expenses

15.25%

8% 15%

Higher values indicate better overall profitability

TTM (as of 2025-04-16)

Strong Liquidity Ratios

4.67
Current Ratio
2.28
Quick Ratio

The current ratio of 4.67 and quick ratio of 2.28 indicate a strong ability to cover short-term liabilities with current assets.

Low Debt Levels

0.13
Debt-to-Equity Ratio

The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13 shows that the company is conservatively leveraged, suggesting lower financial risk.

Moderate Cash Position

0.37
Cash Ratio

The cash ratio of 0.37 indicates that while the company has good liquidity, its cash reserves are not excessively high compared to current liabilities.

About Financial Health Metrics

Financial health metrics assess a company's ability to meet its financial obligations and its overall financial stability.

Debt to Equity Ratio

Total debt divided by total equity

0.13x

1.0x 2.0x

Lower values indicate less financial leverage and risk

Less than 1.0 is conservative, 1.0-2.0 is moderate, >2.0 indicates high risk

Q4 2024

Current Ratio

Current assets divided by current liabilities

4.67x

1.0x 2.0x

Higher values indicate better short-term liquidity

Less than 1.0 is concerning, 1.0-2.0 is adequate, greater than 2.0 is good

Q4 2024

🏒 Strong Customer Base

77%
Percentage of Sales from 10K+ Customers
18%
Growth of 50K+ Customer Sites CAGR

Fastenal has a robust customer base with approximately 270,000 unique customer sites, and a significant percentage of sales derived from larger customers. In 2024, about 5% of customer sites generated 77% of total sales, showing a strong concentration of revenue from key accounts.

πŸ“ˆ Effective Business Model

2,031
Number of Onsite Locations
12%
Growth in Onsite Customer Sites

The company has a well-structured business model focusing on onsite services and vending solutions, which have proven successful in enhancing customer engagement and operational efficiency. The onsite program has grown significantly, with a 12% increase in customer sites compared to the previous year.

πŸ’° Strong Cash Flow Generation

102%
Operating Cash Flow as % of Net Income
10%
Dividend Increase

Fastenal generated significant operating cash flow, amounting to 102% of net income for the full year 2024, reflecting strong financial health and the ability to reward shareholders through dividends, which were increased by 10%.

⚠️ Customer Site Performance

4%
CAGR for 5K-10K Customer Sites
2%
Percentage of Sales from <5K Customers

While Fastenal has a solid customer base, the bottom two customer segments (those spending less than $10,000/month) have shown slow growth, indicating potential challenges in capturing lower-tier customers.

πŸ“‰ Margin Pressure

18.9%
Operating Margin (Q4 2024)
44.8%
Gross Margin (Q4 2023)

The company faced margin pressures in 2024 due to product mix and shipping costs, particularly during the holiday season. This could affect profitability if not managed effectively.

πŸš€ Growth in E-commerce and Technology

28%
E-commerce Growth Rate
66% to 68%
Projected Digital Revenue Contribution

Fastenal is focusing on improving its e-commerce capabilities, which grew by 28% in 2024. Investments in technology and digital capabilities, including AI, are expected to enhance service delivery and customer engagement.

πŸ“Š Positive Market Sentiment

12%
Contract Base Growth (December)

There is a noted improvement in customer sentiment post-election, suggesting a more favorable economic environment for growth in 2025. Regional leadership reports increasing optimism, which may translate into higher sales.

⏳ Economic Uncertainty

Sub-50
PMI Status

Despite positive sentiment, the broader economic landscape remains uncertain, with the PMI indicating modest contraction in manufacturing, which may impact future sales growth.

πŸ”„ Dependency on Key Accounts

77%
Percentage of Revenue from Top 5% Customers

Fastenal's business model heavily relies on a small percentage of high-revenue accounts, which poses risks if these key customers face downturns or decide to switch suppliers.

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